Catastrophic natural climate change risks were dismissed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These grand solar minimum related and natural climate change risks include a return the ice age, a global cooling, large magnitude volcanic eruptions, rapid or abrupt climate change, or a pandemic influenza outbreak. Until the mid-19th century episodic human catastrophe was the global norm during the Little Ice Age (13-19th century). The Little Ice Age saw polar glaciers peak in size after accumulating ice for 5,000 years, and especially since the 13th century.[1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8],[9],[10],[11]
Potential catastrophic natural climate change risks exist, which are linked to this current grand solar minimum and the stage of the glacial cycle that we exist in today. These IPCC-dismissed natural climate change risks include a long overdue switch back to a global cooling phase, which could be associated with a rapid or abrupt climate change event. Climate-forcing volcanism associated with a global cooling, glacier ice expansion, and severe drought is also a risk that cannot be discounted.
A severe influenza pandemic caused by the currently circulating highly pathogenic H7N9, H5N1, or other influenza-A viruses is a prospect we cannot ignore this grand solar minimum. After all half of influenza pandemics and major epidemics since 1500 happened during the Little Ice Age’s grand solar minima.
These risks, if manifest, will potentially place us face-to-face with the brunt of the ice age we entered 8–10.5 millennia ago. Since 1700 the world’s climate entered a centennial-scale warming phase (oscillation), which is now long overdue a switch back to a global cooling phase.
What you need to know about the risks that were dismissed by the IPCC because of Articles 1 and 2
Under the IPCC Articles 1 and 2 [12] driven agenda the world is without a climate risk mitigation plan for anything other than anthropogenic global warming. This site provides a risk mitigation plan for natural climate change risks dismissed by the IPCC. This is pitched at the level of you at home, and for government and municipal leaders (see sub-page menu).
According to the IPCC’s global warming predictions, the future risks during the 21st century will vary according to the degree of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.[13],[14] The IPCC climate risk assessment ignored numerous eminent climate experts who specialize in solar activity, and who have warned of a return to Little Ice Age-like conditions during this grand solar minimum.[15],[16],[17],[18],[19],[20],[21]
Surprisingly, and almost shockingly, the IPCC’s climate risk assessment dismissed, or ignored, or did not detail the climate risks associated with this current grand solar minimum,[22] and with climate-forcing volcanism.[23] The prospect of a rapid climate change event was also dismissed,[24],[25] despite a significant body of evidence for it’s occurrence since the Holocene Climate Optimum.[26],[27],[28],[29],[30],[31],[32],[33],[34],[35],[36],[37],[38],[39],[40],[41],[42],[43],[44],[45]
The IPCC’s risk assessment reports[46], provide no review of the climate-related catastrophes that occurred during the Little Ice Age,[47],[48],[49],[50],[51]including the catastrophic impact of climate-forcing or large magnitude volcanic eruptions.[52],[53],[54],[55],[56] By dismissing or ignoring the Little Ice Age’s climate-related catastrophes, important science has been overlooked linking volcanism during a grand solar minimum to centennial-scale Arctic ice accumulation and global cooling.[57],[58],[59],[60],[61]
Lest we forget, no matter what human activity-related perturbations exist in the earth and climate systems, they are dwarfed by natural phenomena. These natural phenomena proceed unabated, irrespective of Articles 1 and 2, and by their own natural clocks that abide by the laws of the universe.
[1] O. N. Solomina et al., 2016, “Glacier fluctuations during the past 2000 years.” Quaternary Science Reviews, 149, 61-90. DOI:10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.04.008.
[2]
Jason P. Briner et al., “Holocene climate change in Arctic Canada and Greenland.” Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 147, 2016, 340-364, ISSN 0277-3791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.02.010 .
[3]
Leonid Polyak et al., “History of sea ice in the Arctic.” Quaternary Science Reviews 29 (2010) 1757–1778, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.010.
[4]
D.S. Kaufman et al., “Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0–1800W).” Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (2004) 529–560.
[5]
A.N. Mackintosh et al., 2014, “Retreat history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum.” Quaternary Science Reviews 100, 10e30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.07.024.
[6]
Christophe Kinnard et al., “A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone: Observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences.” Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, L02507, doi:10.1029/2007GL032507, 2008.
[7]
N. L. Balascio et al., “Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene.” Climate of the Past, 11, 1587-1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1587-2015 , 2015.
[8]
Nicolaj K. Larsen et al., “The response of the southern Greenland ice sheet to the Holocene thermal maximum.” Geology ; 43 (4): 291–294. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G36476.1.
[9]
M. Frezzotti1 et al., “A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 years.” The Cryosphere, 7, 303–319, 2013. www.the-cryosphere.net/7/303/2013/doi:10.5194/tc-7-303-2013.
[10]
Ó. Ingólfsson et al., 1998, “Antarctic glacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum: An overview of the record on land. “Antarctic Science, 10(3), 326-344. doi:10.1017/S095410209800039X.
[11]
The RAISED Consortium1, Michael J. Bentley et al. “A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum.” Quaternary Science Reviews. Volume 100, 15 September 2014, 1-9.
[12] Conduct a Google Search for the following IPCC document. “Procedures for the Preparation, Review, Acceptance, Adoption, Approval and Publication of IPCC Reports” or Appendix A to the Principles Governing IPCC Work Procedures. [Exposé: See Pages 5 and 16; IPCC author-scientists are selected from lists of national experts provided by governments. Pages 7 and 8; government representatives negotiate and agree to the final synthesis report wording line by line. Neither points support that AR1-5 represent a consensus of the international scientific community, but rather an enforced consensus by politically aligned government scientists receiving grant funding.].
[13] Narrow scope of climate risk assessment: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pages [Exposé: See pages 59-65, (1) Section B-1. The IPCC specifically tells us that key climate risks assessed relate to severe impacts relative to Article 2, which refers to dangerous human interference with the climate system. (2) See Table TS.3 and TS.3.].
[14] IPCC Risk mitigation. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pages [Exposé: See page 14, second paragraph. This paragraph tells us that climate change risks can be reduced by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.].
[15] N. Scafetta, “Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2012). doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2012.02.016.
[16] Theodor Landscheidt, “New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?” Energy & Environment. 2003. Volume 14, Issue 2, 327 – 350. https://doi.org/10.1260/095830503765184646.
[17] R.J. Salvador, “A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 years.” Pattern Recognition Physics, 1, 117-122, doi:10.5194/prp-1-117-2013, 2013.
[18] Habibullo Abdussamatov, “Current Long-Term Negative Average Annual Energy Balance of the Earth Leads to the New Little Ice age.” Thermal Science. 2015 Supplement, Volume 19, S279-S288.
[19] Jan-Erik Solheim, https://www.mwenb.nl/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Blog-Jan-Erik-Solheim-def.pdf. Referred from http://www.climatedialogue.org/what-will-happen-during-a-new-maunder-minimum/. Citing blog for 4-5 solar-climate experts.
[20] Nils-Axel Mörner, “Solar Wind, Earth’s Rotation and Changes in Terrestrial Climate.” Physical Review & Research International 3 (2): 117-136, 2013.
[21] Boncho P. Bonev et al., “Long-Term Solar Variability and the Solar Cycle in the 21st Century.” The Astrophysical Journal, 605:L81–L84, 2004 April 10.
[22] Dismissing solar activity. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pages [Exposé: (1) See page 1009 sub-section 11.3.6.3 point 4. This point tells us that the IPCC climate projections assume no changes in solar irradiance in their climate forecasts, because there is a low confidence in the solar activity projections. (2) See page 1007 sub-section 11.3.6.2.2. The IPCC dismissed the impact of solar forcing on the climate during this grand solar minimum, despite solar activity being at its lowest level for the longest period since the early 20th century. This scientific dismissal of solar activity’s impact on the climate resulted from the low confidence the IPCC had in the solar activity projections (solar irradiance). But they had “high confidence” that greenhouse gases would offset any diminution in total solar irradiance’s impact on the climate. The IPCC do not ascribe any climate modifying role to solar magnetism (magnetized solar wind) i.e., air circulations, geomagnetism-cosmic rays-low clouds (see Figures 4.3.A, 4.4, 6.2, 5.1-5.3, and Chapter 6). Critique: The IPCC’s low confidence in these projections is counter to NASA’s open acceptance of this grand solar minimum and its impact on our atmosphere and other earth systems linked to climate change (listen to the video, https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). This low confidence is also counter to scientific experts advising the Russian Space program (i.e., Habibullo Abdussamatov), and leading solar activity scientists expert in climate change advising of a planetary cooling in the decades ahead. What legitimacy does the IPCC have to dismiss other scientific disciplines and space program (USA, Russia) sciences, which are known to impact earth systems? (i.e., magnetosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere, tectonic-volcanic processes)].
[23] Dismissing volcanism. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pages [Exposé: (1) See page 1008-1009, FAQ 11.2. This section details how volcanic eruptions impact the climate. We are told that IPCC-promoted climate predictions do not include or reflect potential future volcanic eruptions (for various reasons, which is tantamount to confirmation bias). (2) See page 1009 sub-section 11.3.6.3 point 4. This point confirms that IPCC promoted climate forecasts do not include any impact of volcanism on the future climate, because of volcanism’s unpredictability. Critique: By not including the potential impact of volcanism in climate forecasts, natural planetary cooling factors (i.e., volcanic aerosols) known to counter carbon dioxide’s global warming effect are thereby eliminated from IPCC promoted forecasts. Ignoring volcanism, solar activity, and natural climate change constitutes scientific bias, and fails to represent normal science and the full climate system. By dismissing nature the IPCC’s climate forecasts are rendered invalid.].
[24] Not detailing rapid climate change: IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pages [Exposé: See page 122. The IPCC told us that it did not review the risk of abrupt or rapid climate change. This failure to review was despite this report being a Special Report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.” As you will see from the citations in this book, there is much published climate science and climate history relating to the Little Ice Age, climate-forcing volcanism, and the specific rapid climate events known to have taken place since the Holocene Climate Optimum i.e., the 8.2, 5.9 and 4.2 kiloyear rapid climate events (among others). None of this risk-relevant information was detailed in this special risk report.].
[25] Not detailing abrupt or rapid climate change: IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pages [Exposé: (1) See pages 70, Section TFE.5. This section is supposed to detail abrupt climate change and so-called climate tipping points (theoretical). We are told there is some information on abrupt climate change (when there is a lot of information) but there is low confidence and little consensus that such an event would take place during this century (i.e., confirmation bias). (2) See page 115, TS.6.4, and page 1033. These sections reiterate the message contained in section TFE.5 on page 70. Critique: This dismissal of abrupt or rapid climate change is despite the history of catastrophic climate change associated with the Little Ice Age, climate-forcing volcanism, and the specific rapid climate events known to have taken place since the Holocene Climate Optimum i.e., the 8.2, 5.9 and 4.2 kiloyear rapid climate events (among others)].
[26] R. B. Alley et al., “Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 year ago.” Geology ; 25 (6): 483–486. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2.
[27] Kaarina Sarmaja-Korjonen and H. Seppa, 2007, “Abrupt and consistent responses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to the 8200 cal. year cold event: a lacustrine record from Lake Arapisto, Finland”. The Holocene 17 (4): 457–467. doi:10.1177/0959683607077020.
[28] D.C. Barber et al., 1999, “Forcing of the cold event of 8,200 years ago by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide lakes.” Nature Volume 400, 344–348 (22 July 1999). doi:10.1038/22504.
[29] Christopher R W Ellison et al., 2006, “Surface and Deep Ocean Interactions During the Cold Climate Event 8200 Years Ago.” Science. 2006 Jun 30;312(5782):1929-32. DOI10.1126/science.1127213.
[30] A. Parker et al., 2006, “A Record of Holocene Climate Change from Lake Geochemical Analyses in Southeastern Arabia.” Quaternary Research, 66(3), 465-476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001.
[31] Peter B. deMenocal, “Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene.” Science. 2001: Volume 292, Issue 5517, 667-673. DOI: 10.1126/science.1059287.
[32] Robert K. Booth et al., “A severe centennial-scale drought in midcontinental North America 4200 years ago and apparent global linkages.” The Holocene. Volume15, Issue 3, 321 – 328. 2005. https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl825ft.
[33] J. Wang et al., “The abrupt climate change near 4,400 year BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.” Scientific Reports 2016 Jun 10;6:27723. doi: 10.1038/srep27723.
[34] B.J.J. Menounos et al., 2008, “Western Canadian glaciers advance in concert with climate change circa 4.2 ka.” Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L07501, doi:10.1029/2008GL033172.
[35] Russell Drysdale et al., “Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone.” Geology; 34 (2): 101–104. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G22103.1.
[36] Lonnie G. Thompson et al., “Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa.” Science18 Oct 2002: 589-593.
[37] M. Davis and L. Thompson, 2006, “An Andean ice-core record of a Middle Holocene mega-drought in North Africa and Asia.” Annals of Glaciology, 43, 34-41. doi:10.3189/172756406781812456.
[38] Françoise Gasse and Elise Van Campo, 1994, “Abrupt post-glacial climate events in West Asia and North Africa monsoon domains”. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 126 (4): 435–456. Bibcode:1994E&PSL.126..435G. doi:10.1016/0012-821X(94)90123-6.
[39] J. Ruan et al., 2016, “Evidence of a prolonged drought ca. 4200 year BP correlated with prehistoric settlement abandonment from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave, Northern Algeria.” Climate of the Past, 12(1), 1-4. DOI: 10.5194/cp-12-1-2016.
[40] D. Kaniewski et al., “Middle East coastal ecosystem response to middle-to-late Holocene abrupt climate changes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2008, 105 (37) 13941-13946; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0803533105.
[41] Fenggui Liu, Zhaodong Feng, “A dramatic climatic transition at ~4000 cal. year BP and its cultural responses in Chinese cultural domains.” The Holocene. Volume 22, Issue 10, 1181 – 1197. First Published April 12, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683612441839.
[42] Jianjun Wang, “The abrupt climate change near 4,400 year BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.” Scientific Reports | 6:27723 | DOI: 10.1038/srep27723. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep27723.pdf.
[43] Fenggui Liu and Zhaodong Feng, “A dramatic climatic transition at ~4000 cal. year BP and its cultural responses in Chinese cultural domains.” The Holocene 22(10) 1181–1197 © The Author(s) 2012. DOI: 10.1177/0959683612441839. hol.sagepub.com.
[44] M. Staubwasser, H. Weiss, 2006, “Holocene Climate and Cultural Evolution in Late Prehistoric–Early Historic West Asia.” Quaternary Research, 66(3), 372-387. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.09.001.
[45] P. Mayewski et al., 2004, “Holocene climate variability.” Quaternary Research, 62(3), 243-255. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2004.07.001.
[46] Narrow scope of climate risk assessment: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pages [Exposé: See pages 59-65, (1) Section B-1. The IPCC specifically tells us that key climate risks assessed (only) relate to severe impacts relative to Article 2, which refers to dangerous human interference with the climate system. (2) See Table TS.3 and TS.3.
[47] David D. Zhang et al., “Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2007, 104 (49) 19214-19219; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0703073104.
[48] Dian Zhang et al., “Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China.” China Science Bulletin January 2005, Volume 50, Issue 2, 137–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02897517.
[49] Anthony J. McMichael, “Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2012, 109 (13) 4730-4737; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1120177109. [See page 4734, column 2, second paragraph].
[50] Geoffrey Parker, “Crisis and Catastrophe: The Global Crisis of the Seventeenth Century Reconsidered.” The American Historical Review, Volume 113, No. 4 (Oct., 2008), 1053-1079. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30223245.
[51] D. Collet and M. Schuh (eds.), “Famines During the ‘Little Ice Age’ (1300–1800) .” DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-54337-6_2. [See page 21].
[52] Michael J. Puma et al., “Exploring the potential impacts of historic volcanic eruptions on the contemporary global food system.” PAGES Magazine. Science Highlights. Volcanoes and Climate. Volume 23, No 2, December 2015.
[53] Clive Oppenheimer, “Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815.” Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment (2003). Volume 27, Issue 2, 230 – 259. https://doi.org/10.1191/0309133303pp379ra.
[54] Anthony J. McMichael, “Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2012, 109 (13) 4730-4737; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1120177109. [See page 4735, column 2, paragraph 2].
[55] R.B. Stothers, “Climatic and Demographic Consequences of the Massive Volcanic Eruption of 1258.” Climatic Change (2000) 45: 361. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005523330643.
[56] C. Oppenheimer, 2003, “Ice core and paleoclimate evidence for the timing and nature of the great mid‐13th century volcanic eruption.” International Journal of Climatology, 23: 417-426. doi:10.1002/joc.891.
[57] J. Slawinska and A. Robock, 2018, “Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Decadal to Centennial Fluctuations of Arctic Sea Ice Extent during the Last Millennium and on Initiation of the Little Ice Age.” J. Climate, 31, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0498.1.
[58] F. Lehner et al., 2013, “Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks.” J. Climate, 26, 7586–7602. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00690.1.
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[61] Y. Zhong et al., “Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism.” Climate Dynamics (2011) 37: 2373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z.
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